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A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have piled up.

Per the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still find their top level.

• The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.