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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.