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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."